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None show any indications of a large community change at For example, here is a correspondence analysis of the last years from Larocque et al Figure 4 from Larocque et al Correspondence analysis. The numbers in the graph are the years AD of the samples. The variance explained by each axis is in brackets. The axes are incorrectly scaled. Since I have the data for at least the last century from both lakes, I can try to reproduce the Figure 5.
Non-metric multidimensional scaling of the chironomid stratigraphy from Seebergsee. Non-metric multidimensional scaling of the chironomid stratigraphy from Lake Silvaplana. However, the split is at not I had to use the Bray-Curtis distance as the chord distance used Larocque-Tobler et al found the last sample in the data to be an extreme outlier.
I had hoped this would be my last post exploring Seebergsee, but, alas, I found some further oddities while preparing this post. After discussing those, I have a another post about the chironomid-inferred reconstructions from Lake Zabinskie and, in the unlikely event that I feel inspired, the lakes at Abisko. Soon, I hope to resume my usual diet of papers reporting solar correlations with palaeoecological data.
The authors applied high-end modern statistics and gave full reference. However, their analyses may only be re-produced by using the same scripts in R. A re-calculation with a different statistics software package is not possible, either the respective analyses were not included or derivate variables were used. A focusing on simpler and wider distributed multivariate statistics would be appropriate.
I need to confess: The manuscript uses the avant-garde methods redundancy analysis and canonical correspondence analysis which, I admit, are almost impossible to fit outside vegan unless one uses CANOCO , XLSTAT , or half a dozen other statistical programs or R packages. Had the reviewer complained that the co-correspondence analysis was redundant, I would not have objected.
Had the reviewer explained that our analyses were inappropriate or sub-optimal, I would have paid attention. But this claim that our analyses can only be reproduced with R is both wrong as shown above and irrelevant as these packages can be freely downloaded, and the vague suggestion we use simpler methods is unhelpful.
An email this evening informs me that the reviews of my manuscript discussing the challenges of validating reconstructions derived from microfossil assemblages with instrumental data, and the particular problems with several chironomid-based reconstructions, are now ready.
But since I wish to sleep tonight, I shall refrain from reading them until tomorrow. Why am I examining the climate data where there is surely little to go wrong? Because to find all the problems in a paper, you need to examine everything, and understanding the problems in one paper can help suggest aspects of another paper to examine. Thus, three- to eight-year running means in the instrumental data were used for comparison with the chironomid-inferred temperatures. Temperature reconstruction using chironomid head capsules and the calibration-in-time approach black line compared with mean July instrumental data from the closest meteorological station dotted line.
Averages in the instrumental data followed the time represented in the merged sediment samples. Over-plotted with the instrumental data black circles and the 3 red and 8 blue year running means. I did not expect the three or eight year running means to be identical to the temperature series used by Larocque-Tobler et al but I would expect them to be somewhat similar.
There is a period between about and where the three year running mean and the published series are nearly identical, but around the published series is far higher than either smooth, and between about and it is much lower. Normalisation period I calculated anomalies by subtracting the mean temperature, and I believe the published series is treated in the same way as the mean anomaly is near zero.
Use of a different normal period was used for calculating anomalies could not explain both the high temperatures near and the low temperatures Data homogonisation Larocque-Tobler et al was submitted in September The Swiss Federal Office of Meteorology published the current version of the homogenised climate data in December Larocque-Tobler et al are therefore probably using an earlier version of the temperature data although they could have updated their analysis during revisions.
Compared with the homogenised data, the raw data show a warmer mean annual temperature , but I cannot locate a copy of the version of the data that were available in early Data processsing As I show in my manuscript, and show in a future blog-post, Larocque-Tobler et al incorrectly calculate the August air temperature at Lake Zabinskie when chironomid samples span several years.
Rather than using the mean temperature of the period spanned by the chironomid samples, they use the temperature of the first year. I cannot see any evidence of the same data processing problem here.
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I am a fun loving, bubbly, easy going, The second paper cites the first for providing the age-depth model for the uppermost, unlaminated, section of core the reconstructions appear to use the same chronology, even though the stratigraphies have different ones , providing some evidence that both stratigraphies are from the same core.
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